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Asked: 2022-04-11T19:36:19+00:00 In:

A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below: Day Blueberry…

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A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below:

Day Blueberry Muffins Cinnamon Buns Cupcakes
1 30 17 46
2 33 16 12
3 32 18 16
4 32 18 49
5 35 21 22
6 32 22 17
7 31 24 14
8 38 22 51
9 29 25 18
10 33 26 18
11 38 26 11
12 32 27 54
13 39 29 17
14 32 33 14
15 37 35 12

a. Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate naive method.

Blueberry Muffin The trend-adjusted naive basic naive seasonal-adjusted naive forecast is:
Cinnamon Buns The seasonal-adjusted naive basic naive trend-adjusted naive forecast is:
Cupcakes The basic naive seasonal-adjusted naive trend-adjusted naive forecast is:

b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?

The use of sales data instead of demand implies that sales demand adequately reflect demand sales. We are assuming that no stock-outs occurred because demand equals sales if there are no shortages.

♦ Relevant knowledge
Forecasting is the act of predicting the future state using previous experiences. It involves collecting the past data , and then making assumptions about future conditions. It is utilized by companies, investors as well as economists.

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    a. Use a naive method to predict orders the next day for each product.

    Blueberry Muffin

    37 is the basic naive forecast.

    Cinnamon Buns

    Trend-adjusted naive Forecast: 37.

    Cupcakes

    The basic naive seasonal adjusted naive trend-adjusted forecast. It is 54.

    b. Using sales data rather than demand means that sales accurately reflect demand. Assumed that sales equal demand if there is no shortage.
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