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An electrical contractor’s records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests:
| Week: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Requests: | 25 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods:
a. Naive.
Number of requests
b. A four-period moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)
Number of requests
c. Exponential smoothing with α = .25. Use 25 for week 2 forecast. (Round your intermediate forecast values and final answer to 2 decimal places.)
| Number of Requests | |
| F3 | |
| F4 | |
| F5 | |
| F6 |
a)
26 requests in week 6.
The Naive forecasting technique assumes the same forecast for the next period as the one in the previous period.
The most recent period is 5, while the number of requests for period 5 was 27. Therefore, the forecast for period 6 will be 27.
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b)
Forecast for period 6 using a moving average of four periods is as follows:
Number of requests week 6 =
26.25
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c)
This equation gives you the exponential smoothing forecast.
Ft+1 =
. Yt + (1 – 
) Ft
Forecast for week 3 = 0.25 Media_Tag_3$ 27 + (1 – 0.25) Media_Tag_4$ 25
Week 3 Forecast = 25.5
Forecast for week 4 = 0.25 Media_tag_3$ 25+ (1 – 0.25) Media_tag_4$ 26
For week 4, forecast = 25.38
Forecast for week 5 = 0.25 Media_Tag_3$ 26 + (1 – 0.25) Media_Tag_4$ 25.38
For week 5, forecast = 25.54
Forecast for week 6 = 0.25 Media_Tag_3$ 27 + (1 – 0.25) Media_Tag_4$ 25,.54
For week 6, forecast = 25.91